Looking Further Into Raw's Slow Starts To The New Year

One of the points that I have brought up when talking about Raw's ratings is that there has not always been that big ratings spike to start the year that you would expect. The end of the year features NFL action on Monday nights, going right against Raw. The start of the year features Wrestlemania season, which is the WWE's hottest time of the year. A lot of fans and wrestling news site writers just usually expect things to get better when a new year starts.

I am going to look at the viewership averages for Raw in the last three months of the year and first three months of the year, going back to 2012. Why 2012? Because that is as far back Wrestlingdata.com goes with consistent viewership numbers. I am also not going to include the Raws after Wrestlemania. Why? First of all, they usually don't happen in the first three months of the year. Second, this is more about looking at the build up to Wrestlemania and the viewership it gets. That is why I am not including the Raw after Wrestlemania from 2015, which was in March.

End of 2016 - 2,877,000 viewers

Start of 2016 - 3,603,000 viewers
End of 2015 - 3,300,000 viewers

Start of 2015 - 4,003,000 viewers
End of 2014 - 3,782,000 viewers

Start of 2014 - 4,444,000 viewers
End of 2013 - 3,925,000 viewers

Start of 2013 - 4,621,000 viewers
End of 2012 - 3,788,000 viewers

Start of 2012 - 4,500,00 viewers

What you can see is that the WWE has gained about 300,000 viewers from football season to Wrestlemania season in the last two periods. For 2013/2014, they gained about 500,000 viewers, which is a good amount. For 2012/2013, they gained a little less than 900,000 viewers, which is pretty big. Keep in mind that 2012 was the last election year before this recent one in 2016.

Something else you might notice from the data is how many viewers the WWE has lost from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. That is why I bothered to include the start of 2012. It matches the trend. From the start of 2012 to the end of 2012, Raw lost around 700,000 viewers. From the start of 2013 to the end of 2013, they lost about 700,000 viewers. Same in 2014. Same in 2015. And I also included the final few months of 2016 to show that it also comes out to around 700,000 viewers.

Keep in mind, this does not mean the WWE is losing 700,000 viewers every year. That is how many they are losing from the start of the year to the end of the year on average. From the end of the year to the start of a new year, they gain back some of their viewers. That's Wrestlemania season.

What you have to wonder is whether they are gaining back a good amount during Wrestlemania season recently. Only gaining back 200,000 or 300,000 viewers isn't going to cut it. The WWE is likely to lose more than double that by the time the year ends. 500,000 is a respectable number. I doubt the WWE gains back 900,000 viewers, like they did the last time there was an election year.

So far in 2017, Raw has gotten roughly the same numbers it got during football season a few months ago. No bump at all. You can say that they had to go against college football games that got a lot of viewers, but these college games have not always destroyed Raw in previous years. I don't think the excuse fits. But now that those games are out of the way, the WWE has pretty much no more excuses for Raw.